Each time he is given the chance, Alistair Darling insists the referendum result will be a lot closer than "people" (presumably his kind of people) like to believe.

In other words, the chairman of Better Together calculates that approaching half of the Scots likely to vote will vote Yes.

Mr Darling doesn't risk precise numbers, but you can take a stab on his behalf. There were 4.1 million people registered to vote as of December 1, 2011. Let's say there's a 75% turnout in September. Let's say that by "close" the former Chancellor means around 48% for Yes. That's 1.44 million people.