TAMPA, Fla. - Homeowners in Florida should brace for an increase in their property insurance rates.

A new computer model showing possible risks of a hurricane indicate the storms may cause more damage than previously expected, particularly farther inland.

     The model comes from a company called Risk Management Solutions, one of the largest producers of hurricane computer models in the country. Insurance companies utilize models like this to set insurance rates.

     The data from Risk Management Solutions specifically shows areas farther inland could be more at risk than previously believed.

     The previously-held belief was hurricanes would break up after reaching land. While it is still believed that is the case, the model indicates it could take longer for that to happen, increasing damage projections inland.

     According to Bill Netwon, executive director of the Florida Consumer Action Network, Risk Management Solutions used research on Hurricane Charley -- which caused damage as far inland as Orlando in 2005 – to justify their findings.

    “They’ve gone and looked in detail at (Hurricane) Charley and found some things they thought indicated there could be more damage than they were saying before,” Newton said.

     Newton believes insurance companies could use the models as a justification for raising property insurance rates.

     That sentiment was echoed at a recent conference in New York, during which an executive for Standard and Poors suggested the new model would raise insurance rates on inland properties.

     Newton does not trust the findings of the models. He said Risk Management Solutions would not have to justify their findings publicly, because much of the model’s data is allowed to stay confidential.

   “They’re what we call black-box models. They’re secrets. They put numbers in one side, rate increases come out the other and ‘What’s in between?’” he asked. “We don’t know.”

    Officials at Risk Management Solutions did not respond Monday to multiple telephone calls and emails. 
 

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